Britain’s kids are getting taller, but the tall tale behind it is worrying. A fresh analysis of the Child Measurement Programme data from England, Scotland, and Wales challenges recent headlines that British children are shrinking. Researchers from the University of Oxford found that the average height of children has risen over the last two decades. However, they argue this growth isn’t a sign of better overall child health. Instead, the rise in average height is closely tied to increasing obesity among children in lower-income groups and to broader socioeconomic inequalities.
Why does this matter? When children are overweight or obese, hormonal changes can speed up development, causing them to grow taller than their healthy-weight peers. But obesity in childhood is linked to a higher risk of chronic diseases later in life, such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease.
Using data obtained through Freedom of Information requests and official statistics, the study looked at trends in height and obesity up to the 2023/24 school year. Obesity has risen in deprived areas but fallen in more affluent ones, reflecting widening inequality. Height gaps between rich and poor have narrowed somewhat—poorer children remain shorter on average, but the distance to their wealthier peers has decreased. The researchers suggest the height increases among poorer children are largely driven by rising obesity in those groups.
In England’s most deprived areas, the average height of 11-year-old boys rose by 1.7 cm—from 144.4 cm to 146.1 cm—over fourteen years (2009/10 to 2023/24). In the same period, the share of these children who were overweight or obese grew from 37.7% to 43.3%.
Dr. Andrew Moscrop, a general practitioner and researcher at Oxford’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, cautions against a simplistic positive takeaway. “On the surface, it might look like good news that kids are taller on average. But the reality is complex and troubling: height gains are mainly among poorer children, and they’re being driven by higher obesity rates caused by unfair health determinants.” He highlights the wider context:
- Children in poorer areas face more exposure to unhealthy food outlets and fewer sources of nutritious options, with limited access to safe outdoor spaces and routes for exercise.
- Public services designed to support healthy weight have faced reductions, especially in deprived communities.
To tackle these issues, Moscrop and colleagues argue for addressing child poverty and reducing inequalities, while also changing the environments in which children grow up.
A notable spike in average height across all children occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, coinciding with a rise in obesity due to reduced outdoor activity and less healthy eating. For example, among 11-year-old girls in England, average height jumped from 146.6 cm to 148.0 cm between the 2019/20 and 2020/21 school years, while the share who were overweight or obese increased from 35.2% to 40.9% in the same period.
Public attention intensified in 2023 after reports claimed that British children were “shrinking.” A January 2024 government statement said the data showed growth, but researchers say that the claim of shrinking was erroneous, and the government wording was misleading since it cited the COVID-era height increase.
The Child Measurement Programmes routinely measure height and weight for children in state education. In England, roughly 600,000 children aged 4–5 are measured each year, with smaller cohorts measured in Scotland (about 50,000–55,000) and Wales (30,000–35,000). England also conducts height measurements at age 10–11, in the final year of primary school.
The paper’s authors are Dr. Andrew Moscrop (Oxford), Danny Dorling (Professor of Human Geography at Oxford), and Tim Cole (Emeritus Professor of Medical Statistics, UCL). The study, titled “British children are not shrinking, but height is rising for the wrong reasons: trends and inequalities in child measurement programme data for England, Scotland and Wales,” appears in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health.
If you’d like, I can summarize the study’s key findings in a quick infographic-friendly format or provide talking points for a discussion in the comments about whether height trends are a fair proxy for child health.
