Tottenham's Champions League Position Cannot Save Doomed Thomas Frank
Tottenham's performance in the Champions League, while impressive, cannot save Thomas Frank from the scrutiny of a season in freefall. Despite a recent victory over Borussia Dortmund, the underlying numbers tell a different story, and there's little reason to believe Frank can turn this around and save Spurs' season.
The writing was on the wall for Frank long before the Dortmund game. Tottenham's fans, once hopeful, have turned on the manager, with boos echoing around the stadium before matches even start. The atmosphere has become toxic, with more than 10,000 empty seats at Tuesday night's Champions League win, a stark contrast to the rare moments of hope provided by the team's performance.
The Dortmund victory, while a rare bright spot, cannot obscure the myriad of problems plaguing the team. Frank's tenure has been marked by a string of poor performances, with the team struggling to build on early leads and failing to impress against teams they should beat. The five-game winless streak, including a 1-0 loss to Crystal Palace, has left many fans questioning Frank's ability to turn the team around.
The parallels with Arsenal, who also struggled in the league under Mikel Arteta, are intriguing. However, the key difference lies in the fact that Arsenal had green shoots of hope, with a FA Cup win in Arteta's first season. Tottenham, on the other hand, has shown very little reason for optimism under Frank, with performances consistently lacking in quality.
The numbers tell a similar story. Tottenham has struggled to keep possession and progress play, creating far fewer and worse chances than their opponents. Set-pieces have become their primary source of goals, with a higher proportion of expected goals coming from dead balls than any other team in the Premier League. The 'xG battle' has been won in just eight of 22 Premier League games, with Tottenham's position in the table a far better reflection of their displays.
The xPts model, which simulates the number of goals scored based on xG, highlights Tottenham's overachievement in the early stages of the season. However, this has not continued, with the team now in a position that their underlying numbers suggested months ago. The eye test, combined with the data, paints a clear picture of Tottenham's struggles under Frank.
The club's hierarchy may stick to their guns, hoping for a turn in fortunes, but the numbers tell a worrying story. Frank's tenure at Tottenham has been marked by poor performances and a lack of consistency, with the team struggling to match the quality of their opponents. The recent dip in form has left relegation a real possibility, with a challenging run of fixtures ahead.
While mitigating circumstances exist, such as a horrendous list of injuries and a long-term project to 'fix' the team, the numbers suggest that Frank's time at Tottenham may be coming to an end. The club's patience may be rewarded, but the numbers tell a story of a team in freefall, with little reason to believe that Frank can turn this around.
