ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for two Big 12 rivals, BYU and Utah, is promising. Both teams are expected to be contenders for the conference championship, with BYU ranked No. 20 and Utah No. 31 in the national rankings. This marks a significant improvement from last year, where BYU finished 11-1 and Utah 11-2, both surpassing their projected win totals.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 is impressive, with a projected 8.7 wins, a 93.1% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility, and a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12. The Cougars also have a 25.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 2.2% chance of reaching the national championship game. This is a notable increase from last season, where they were projected for 8.0 wins and a 12.6% chance of making the playoff.
The key to BYU's success this year is its strength of schedule, ranked ninth in the Big 12. Last year, BYU's schedule was 74th, with only Houston ranked lower. This year, the Cougars host Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in FPI, and play Utah, ranked No. 31, in a highly anticipated conference game. Their highest-rated Big 12 home opponent is Arizona, ranked No. 34.
Utah's FPI score of 8.5 is also impressive, with a projected 7.7 wins, an 83.7% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility, and a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12. The Utes have a 11.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 0.6% chance of reaching the national championship game. Last year, Utah was projected for 6.4 wins and a 67.3% chance of bowl eligibility, but they exceeded these expectations with an 11-2 record.
The Utes' strength of schedule is 13th in the Big 12, which is favorable for a team returning several key players. While their overall schedule wasn't much higher last season, it was the sixth-highest in the conference. Utah's highest-rated Big 12 opponent is BYU, ranked No. 20, and they face the SEC's Arkansas, ranked No. 47, in nonconference play.
In summary, both BYU and Utah have strong FPI rankings and are poised for success in the 2026 season. BYU's higher FPI score and projected wins suggest they might have a slight edge, but both teams have the potential to make significant strides and contend for the Big 12 title. The Cougars' and Utes' schedules are well-balanced, and their nonconference opponents will provide valuable experience. As for the future, the FPI predictions indicate that both teams are on the rise and could make a strong case for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
